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Prediction for CME (2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-31T00:15Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39185/-1
CME Note: Full-halo CME first seen in GOES-19 CCOR-1. Also seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after the beginning of a downlink period with data streaming in starting at about 2025-05-31T01:00Z. No STEREO A COR2 imagery was available in real time for this CME due to a data gap which began at 2025-05-30T19:09Z. The source is an M8.1 flare from AR 14100 (N12E12). A significant area of opening field lines and dimming can be seen from near AR 14100 (N12E12) in SDO AIA 193/171/131/304 and GOES SUVI 284/304 beginning at 2025-05-30T23:47Z, immediately after the flare. Dimming and field line movement extends along a nearby filament which spans across most of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from approximately N30E05 to S15W35, snaking through the entire NW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in a shape resembling the number '3'. It appears that most of the filamentary material ejected is from the upper lobe of the '3', and departs from approximately N10W15. This filament is also located directly next to, and runs parallel to, the SWPC-numbered Coronal Hole 52. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density preceding this arrival, followed by a drop in density. After the initial shock/sheath there is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components (seen after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating the possible start of a flux rope. There are also two more potential flux ropes seen in this 2-day solar wind signature down the road, likely indicating that there were three CMEs combined in a single front. This fast halo CME was predicted to potentially combine with (catch up) two slower, preceding, Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -121

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T12:21Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-05-31T12:51:58Z
## Message ID: 20250531-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by GOES / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2025-05-31T00:15Z.

Estimated speed: ~1302 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 47 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -9/8 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Psyche, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CME will reach Psyche at 2025-06-04T09:12Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-05-31T21:39Z, and STEREO A at 2025-06-01T15:15Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2025-06-07T00:00Z and Mars at 2025-06-04T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-06-01T12:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 8-9 (severe to extreme).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250531_023200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001) is associated with the M8.1 flare from Active Region 14100 (N12E12) with ID 2025-05-30T23:31:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-05-31T00:05Z (see notifications 20250531-AL-001, 20250531-AL-002).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Lead Time: 16.52 hour(s)
Difference: -6.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-31T12:51Z

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